Saturday, 17 January 2015

Tax Slab, Inflation and Government Revenue

Suppose the tax slab is like the following:
(Figures in Rupees)
Tax bracket   Tax rate        Actual income  Income when indexed with inflation
0-3L                   0%                 2.9L                   3.045L
3.01-5L                10%               4.9L                   5.145L
5.01-10L              20%               9.9L                   10.4L

Start with an inflation rate of 0%. Assume that one’s income falls in the first category where he does not have to pay tax. Now inflation climbs up to, say, 5%. Assume that in the economy, people’s income/salary is tied to the inflation rate. As a result, see what happens to the fourth column. Now one’s income has shifted to tax category. For example, in the first case, as his income has risen to above 3lakhs (3.045L to be precise) as a result of salary tied with inflation, he has to pay a flat 10% income tax which is (3.045-3)*10%=Rs 1450.

Imagine how much money the government is collecting income tax due to this slab system.

So, if the government has data regarding mean income of each tax slab, and if income is indexed, this example shows government can create the necessary amount of inflation so as to push them to the next tax slab where they have to pay tax. In this way government can collect revenue.


But does it make sense for the government given that people dislike inflation and government will earn a public ire? If the mean income in the tax slab is close to the upper boarder (that is, close to 3L in the exempted tax slab), then government may go for it. If the average income is much lower than the upper boarder, then it has no incentive to create more inflation so as to push the tax payers to the next tax slab. But here’s is the catch. If government is seriously considering generating revenue through this way, then it can redesign the tax slab very close to the average income in each tax slab. For example, in the first category which is exempted, the mean income is, say, 2.4L. So, the government can redesign the tax slab in the budget from 0-2.5L. Then with little effort it can push the inflation.